Last week’s economic calendar was relatively light, but markets were anything but quiet as geopolitical headlines drove sentiment. That theme looks set to continue after the strike on Riyadh’s airport over the weekend. This week’s calendar ramps up significantly, with US inflation data, major central-bank speakers at the IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok, and the start of another US earnings season led by major banks. US CPI on Wednesday is the main event, while Australian employment data and US PPI on Thursday will also be closely watched. Geopolitics remains an important market driver as traders assess developments alongside a much busier economic calendar.
Market Review & Outlook
Last week’s economic calendar was relatively light, but markets were anything but quiet. Geopolitics once again drove sentiment as traders reacted to a steady stream of headlines, and that theme looks set to continue after the strike on Riyadh’s airport over the weekend.
This week is a very different story from a data perspective. The calendar ramps up significantly, with inflation data taking centre stage in the US and several major central-bank speakers scheduled to appear at the IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok. The start of another US earnings season, led by the major banks, will also give markets plenty to digest.
US CPI on Wednesday is the main event, with markets looking closely at whether inflation continues to cooperate and what that means for the Federal Reserve outlook. Australian Employment Data and US PPI on Thursday are also important, while geopolitical developments remain a key influence on market sentiment.
Key Events This Week
US CPI headlines this week’s calendar, alongside Australian Employment Data, US PPI, UK GDP and a series of central-bank appearances at the IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok. Chinese CPI and PPI, US Retail Sales, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey and Weekly Jobless Claims will also be in focus.
| Date | Key Event | Market Focus |
|---|---|---|
| Tuesday | Fed’s Barkin and Collins speeches | USD |
| Tuesday | Bank of England’s Dhingra speech | GBP |
| Wednesday | Chinese CPI and PPI | CNY |
| Wednesday | US CPI | USD |
| Wednesday | Lagarde, Bailey and Macklem speeches at IMF meetings | Global |
| Thursday | Australian Employment Data | AUD |
| Thursday | UK GDP | GBP |
| Thursday | Andrew Bailey and Martin Schlegel speeches | Global |
| Thursday | US PPI, Retail Sales, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey and Weekly Jobless Claims | USD |
| Friday | Kevin Warsh, Andrew Bailey and Tiff Macklem speeches | Global |
Weekly Trading Rhythm
Monday – The week starts quietly from a calendar perspective, with little scheduled economic data. Traders should nevertheless be mindful of thinner liquidity conditions, particularly later in the day, as both US and Canadian markets are closed for public holidays. In quieter conditions, geopolitical headlines can have an outsized impact.
Tuesday – The calendar remains light, with speeches from the Fed’s Barkin and Collins and the Bank of England’s Dhingra. Markets are unlikely to place too much weight on those appearances given the bigger events scheduled for the second half of the week. The focus remains on positioning ahead of Wednesday’s inflation data and any geopolitical developments that cross the wires.
Wednesday – This is where the week gets moving. The Asian session brings Chinese CPI and PPI, which will be watched for clues on growth and demand conditions in the world’s second-largest economy. Attention then shifts to US CPI shortly after the New York open, the headline release of the week with the potential to move rates markets, equities and the US dollar. ECB President Christine Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem are also scheduled to speak from the IMF meetings in Bangkok.
Thursday – Australian Employment Data is due during the Asian morning, making for a busy session for the Australian dollar. UK GDP is released during the London session, while Andrew Bailey and Swiss National Bank Chairman Martin Schlegel are also scheduled to speak. The New York session includes US PPI, Retail Sales, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey and Weekly Jobless Claims, a data set that could shape expectations around growth, inflation and the Federal Reserve’s next move.
Friday – The economic calendar becomes lighter, but central-bank commentary remains in focus. The final day of the IMF meetings features appearances by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem. After a week dominated by inflation data, markets will listen for clues on how policymakers interpret the latest numbers and what that could mean heading into year-end.