Markets had another lively week as geopolitics and a busy data calendar kept traders on their toes. The Middle East remained firmly in focus, while deteriorating US–Ukraine relations added another layer of uncertainty. Strong US data gave investors plenty to digest, although hotter-than-expected inflation did little to shift expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike this month. The US calendar is quieter this week, but inflation updates from Canada, the UK and New Zealand should keep currency markets moving. Geopolitical headlines and an accelerating Q3 earnings season will remain important market drivers.
Market Review & Outlook
Markets had another lively week as geopolitics and a busy data calendar kept traders on their toes. The Middle East remained firmly in focus, while deteriorating US–Ukraine relations added another layer of uncertainty.
Strong US data also gave investors plenty to digest, although hotter-than-expected inflation numbers ultimately did little to shift expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike this month.
The US calendar is much quieter this week, but key inflation updates from other major economies should keep currency markets moving. Geopolitical headlines will remain a major driver, while earnings season gathers pace with some big names reporting Q3 results.
Key Events This Week
Inflation updates from Canada, the UK and New Zealand are among the week’s main events, while Chinese data, UK employment figures and global Flash PMIs will also be closely watched. The calendar also includes the usual US Weekly Unemployment Claims and revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations data, alongside UK Retail Sales and US crude inventory figures.
| Date | Key Event | Market Focus |
|---|---|---|
| Monday | Chinese GDP, Industrial Production and Retail Sales | CNY |
| Monday | Canadian CPI | CAD |
| Tuesday | Chinese Loan Prime Rate announcements | CNY |
| Tuesday | UK Employment Data | GBP |
| Wednesday | UK CPI and PPI; Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speech | GBP |
| Wednesday | US Crude Inventory Data | USD |
| Thursday | New Zealand CPI | NZD |
| Thursday | US Weekly Unemployment Claims | USD |
| Friday | Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs | Global |
| Friday | UK Retail Sales | GBP |
| Friday | Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations | USD |
Weekly Trading Rhythm
Monday – Chinese markets take centre stage in Asia, with GDP, Industrial Production and Retail Sales all due out midway through the session. Attention then turns to Canada, where CPI numbers land early in the New York session and could prompt a fresh reassessment of Bank of Canada rate expectations.
Tuesday – China remains in focus with the latest Loan Prime Rate announcements. The main action then shifts to the UK, where employment data is due early in the London session. Traders will be watching for any signs of softer labour market conditions or persistent wage pressure.
Wednesday – A quiet Asian calendar gives way to another busy UK session, with CPI and PPI releases followed by a scheduled speech from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. Sterling could see some sharp moves as traders weigh the inflation numbers against the Bank’s policy outlook. US crude inventory data will also draw attention in New York, with oil traders continuing to track Middle East developments.
Thursday – New Zealand CPI kicks things off early, putting the Kiwi firmly in focus as traders reassess the RBNZ outlook. The rest of the calendar is relatively light, with the usual US Weekly Unemployment Claims figures providing the main scheduled release in the New York session.
Friday – The week finishes with a busy run of Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs across Australia, France, Germany, the eurozone, the UK and the US. UK Retail Sales add to the London session risk, before revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations numbers round out the US calendar. With releases spread across all three sessions, traders should have plenty to work with into the weekend.