Last week’s markets stayed volatile on Middle East headlines, sharp tech stock swings, and a run of central bank decisions, with the yen whipsawed by intervention as the BoJ, Fed, and BoE all held rates unchanged. This week looks lighter on the calendar, but focus shifts to employment data, with Friday’s US Non-Farm Payrolls the headline event and geopolitical risk still very much in view.
Market Review & Outlook
Last week gave traders just about everything — another round of Middle East headlines, huge swings in technology stocks, and a series of central bank decisions that kept volatility elevated across currencies, equities, and bond markets.
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East continued to weigh on sentiment, while concerns over stretched tech valuations triggered some sharp moves in the major indices. On the currency side, the real action came from Japan, with significant intervention in the yen alongside policy decisions from the Bank of Japan, the Federal Reserve, and the Bank of England, all of which left interest rates unchanged.
This Week’s Focus Events
This week looks lighter on paper, but I wouldn’t mistake that for a quiet week. The focus shifts squarely to employment data, with key releases across New Zealand, Canada, and, most importantly, the United States. Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report will be the headline event, and given how sensitive markets are to interest rate expectations right now, it has the potential to move just about everything. At the same time, traders will continue to keep one eye firmly on Washington and the Middle East, so expect sentiment to remain headline-driven throughout the week.
| Date | Event | Market Focus |
|---|---|---|
| Monday | Swiss Inflation Data | CHF |
| Monday | ISM Manufacturing PMI | USD |
| Tuesday | JOLTS Job Openings | USD |
| Wednesday | New Zealand Employment Data | NZD |
| Wednesday | Europe Final Services PMI | EUR |
| Wednesday | ADP Employment Report | USD |
| Wednesday | ISM Services PMI | USD |
| Thursday | US Weekly Unemployment Claims | USD |
| Friday | Non-Farm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate | USD |
| Friday | Canadian Employment Data | CAD |
| Friday | Canada Ivey PMI | CAD |
Week Ahead Outlook
The bottom line is that this week may have fewer scheduled events than the last, but it still has all the ingredients for plenty of volatility. Employment data will be front and centre, and with geopolitical risks still simmering in the background, traders should be prepared for another week where headlines matter just as much as the economic calendar.