Global bond yields surged last week as geopolitical concerns continued to dominate sentiment, keeping market volatility elevated. The coming week could prove even more volatile, with geopolitical headlines and a packed macroeconomic calendar competing for traders’ attention. US employment releases, the Core PCE Price Index and Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report will be central to the outlook, while the RBA decision and a series of central-bank speakers may also drive moves across major markets.
Market Review & Outlook
Markets endured another lively week, with global bond yields surging and volatility remaining elevated as geopolitical concerns continued to dominate sentiment.
The week ahead has the potential to be even more volatile. Geopolitical headline risk will remain firmly in focus, while a packed macroeconomic calendar should keep traders on their toes throughout the week. Several US employment updates are due ahead of Friday’s key Non-Farm Payrolls report, while the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the Core PCE Price Index, could trigger significant moves across currencies, equities and bond markets.
Other major economies also have important updates scheduled, including the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest interest rate decision, while a raft of central bankers will be on the wires as the week progresses.
Key Events This Week
The RBA decision, US employment updates and the Core PCE Price Index headline this week’s calendar. Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report will offer fresh clues on the strength of the US labour market and the outlook for Federal Reserve policy.
| Date | Key Event | Market Focus |
|---|---|---|
| Tuesday | Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision and press conference | AUD |
| Tuesday | ECB President Christine Lagarde speech | EUR |
| Tuesday | Canadian GDP | CAD |
| Tuesday | US CB Consumer Confidence and JOLTS Job Openings | USD |
| Wednesday | Australian CPI | AUD |
| Wednesday | Preliminary German CPI | EUR |
| Wednesday | US ADP employment report | USD |
| Wednesday | US Core PCE Price Index and GDP | USD |
| Thursday | Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speech | GBP |
| Thursday | SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel speech | CHF |
| Thursday | ECB President Christine Lagarde speech | EUR |
| Thursday | US Weekly Unemployment Claims, ISM Manufacturing PMI and Federal Reserve speakers | USD |
| Friday | Japanese inflation updates | JPY |
| Friday | Eurozone inflation updates | EUR |
| Friday | US Non-Farm Payrolls report | USD |
Weekly Trading Rhythm
Monday – It is another quiet start to the week from a macroeconomic perspective. However, markets are expected to remain lively as traders digest the latest geopolitical developments from the weekend. With headline risk still high, sentiment could shift quickly across equities, currencies, commodities and bond markets.
Tuesday – The economic calendar kicks into gear with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision taking centre stage during the Asian session. The announcement will be followed an hour later by the RBA press conference, with the Aussie likely to see increased volatility around both events. The London session features a scheduled speech from ECB President Christine Lagarde before attention turns to North America for Canadian GDP, US CB Consumer Confidence and the latest JOLTS Job Openings figures.
Wednesday – Wednesday delivers another packed calendar, with Australian markets remaining in focus during the Asian session following the latest CPI release. Preliminary German CPI figures will put the euro in the spotlight during the London session, while the busiest trading conditions are likely to arrive after the New York open. The ADP employment report will offer an early read on US labour-market conditions ahead of Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls release, while the Core PCE Price Index is likely to dominate sentiment. US GDP is also scheduled.
Thursday – Thursday combines economic data with central-bank commentary. Chinese markets will be closed for the final two trading days of the week, potentially reducing liquidity during the Asian sessions. The London day features scheduled speeches from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel and ECB President Christine Lagarde. Attention then shifts to the US for Weekly Unemployment Claims, ISM Manufacturing PMI and remarks from Federal Reserve officials including Waller, Jefferson, Bowman, Cook and Logan.
Friday – Friday is Non-Farm Payrolls Day, with the key US employment figures set to dominate markets early in the New York session. Traders will be watching the headline payrolls number, unemployment rate and wage growth figures for fresh clues on the strength of the US labour market and the outlook for Federal Reserve policy. Before that, important inflation updates from Japan and the eurozone will provide direction for the yen and euro during their respective sessions. With geopolitical risks still elevated and several major economic releases on the calendar, traders should prepare for another potentially volatile week across global markets.