Global markets endured another rollercoaster week as bond yields moved higher, volatility remained elevated and geopolitical tensions weighed on investor sentiment. Softer-than-expected US inflation and employment figures prompted market pricing for further Federal Reserve tightening to be pared back significantly. The economic calendar becomes less intense this week, but the latest FOMC Meeting Minutes, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda’s appearance and Canadian employment data will remain important focal points. Geopolitical headlines from the Middle East remain the key wildcard, with potential implications for oil, equities, currencies and fixed income.
Market Review & Outlook
It was another rollercoaster week across global markets, with bond yields pushing higher, volatility remaining front and centre, and geopolitical tensions continuing to weigh on investor sentiment. Softer-than-expected US inflation and employment figures also led market pricing for further Federal Reserve tightening to be pared back significantly.
The economic calendar takes a noticeable step down in intensity this week, but traders will still be focused on signals around the Federal Reserve. The latest FOMC Meeting Minutes will be closely examined for clues about policymakers’ views on inflation, growth and labour-market conditions, while Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda’s scheduled appearance will be watched as traders assess the outlook for the yen and the risk of intervention from Japanese authorities.
Geopolitics remains the market’s biggest wildcard. Headlines out of the Middle East could continue to drive sentiment, with any meaningful developments potentially moving oil markets and creating flow-on effects across equities, currencies and fixed income.
Key Events This Week
The FOMC Meeting Minutes, Canadian employment data and Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda’s speech headline this week’s calendar. US ISM Services PMI, Canadian Ivey PMI, US crude oil inventories, the US 10-year Treasury auction, Weekly Jobless Claims and preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment figures will also be monitored.
| Date | Key Event | Market Focus |
|---|---|---|
| Monday | US ISM Services PMI | USD |
| Tuesday | Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda speech | JPY |
| Tuesday | Canadian Ivey PMI | CAD |
| Wednesday | US Crude Oil Inventories | Global |
| Wednesday | US 10-year Treasury auction | USD |
| Wednesday | FOMC Meeting Minutes | USD |
| Thursday | US Weekly Jobless Claims | USD |
| Friday | Canadian Employment Data | CAD |
| Friday | Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment | USD |
Weekly Trading Rhythm
Monday – The week begins quietly with a relatively light economic calendar. US ISM Services PMI is the main focus during the New York session, while both Australian and Chinese markets are closed, which may leave Asian-session participation thinner than usual.
Tuesday – Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is scheduled to speak late in the Asian session. The appearance comes at a critical time for yen traders following recent currency volatility and ongoing speculation about official intervention. Attention then shifts to North America, where Canada’s Ivey PMI could move CAD crosses during the New York session.
Wednesday – The Asian and European sessions are expected to remain relatively uneventful, but the US session contains several events to watch. Crude oil inventories will be closely monitored amid heightened sensitivity around energy markets, while the US 10-year Treasury auction may offer insight into bond-market demand and yield dynamics. The FOMC Meeting Minutes are the headline event, with traders looking for clues on policymakers’ assessment of inflation, growth and labour-market conditions following last week’s sharp repricing of Federal Reserve expectations.
Thursday – Thursday is arguably the quietest day on the calendar. US Weekly Jobless Claims will attract some attention early in the New York session, and several central-bank speakers are scheduled throughout the day. Barring major surprises from policymakers, geopolitical developments are likely to remain the dominant driver of market direction.
Friday – The week concludes with a light Asian and European calendar before attention turns to North America. Canadian Employment Data and preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment figures are due later in the day. Heading into the weekend, geopolitical headlines are likely to remain more important for risk sentiment than economic fundamentals, with fresh developments capable of setting the tone for markets into the following week.