Global equities pushed to fresh highs last week as expectations for further Fed rate hikes pulled back sharply on weaker US data. Middle East tensions deepened across the Red Sea and Persian Gulf, with US-Iran rhetoric escalating over the weekend. This week’s calendar is relatively quiet, though FOMC minutes, Australian employment data and UK CPI are in focus.
Market Review & Outlook
It was another busy week for financial markets last week, with global equity markets pushing through to fresh record levels while expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes pulled back sharply following another run of weaker-than-expected US data.
The Middle East remained firmly in focus, with the situation continuing to deteriorate across both the Red Sea and Persian Gulf. Rhetoric between the US and Iran stepped up again over the weekend, with Iran calling on the US to accept defeat while President Trump warned Americans to expect higher fuel prices in the months ahead. That could see some downside pressure on risk sentiment as Asian markets open the week.
The macroeconomic calendar remains relatively quiet as northern hemisphere trading centres move through the summer holiday period, but there are still some important data points to watch. The FOMC minutes will be particularly closely followed after the recent run of weaker US numbers, while Australian employment data and UK inflation will also provide plenty of interest.
Key Events This Week
The key events worth watching this week include FOMC Minutes, Australian Employment Data and UK CPI, alongside a fuller calendar spanning China, Canada and the UK.
| Date | Event | Market Focus |
|---|---|---|
| Monday | China Retail Sales | CNY |
| Monday | China Unemployment Rate | CNY |
| Monday | Canada CPI | CAD |
| Tuesday | UK Employment Data | GBP |
| Wednesday | UK CPI | GBP |
| Wednesday | UK PPI | GBP |
| Wednesday | FOMC Meeting Minutes | USD |
| Thursday | Australian Employment Data | AUD |
| Friday | UK Retail Sales | GBP |
| Friday | Canada Retail Sales | CAD |
Week Ahead Outlook
Overall, it is another relatively light week from a macro perspective, but with markets sitting at elevated levels and geopolitical tensions still running high, traders should be prepared for volatility to pick up quickly if we see any surprises in the data or further developments across the Middle East.