Traders face another busy week, with major central bank decisions, key data and big earnings updates all competing with Middle East headlines for attention. Last week’s quieter macro calendar did little to contain volatility as escalating geopolitical concerns drove oil to six-month highs and kept markets on edge. The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan are all due to make rate decisions this week. A series of heavyweight data releases and a full earnings calendar should keep markets active throughout the week.
Market Review & Outlook
Traders face another busy week, with major central bank decisions, key data and big earnings updates all competing with Middle East headlines for attention.
Last week’s quieter macro calendar did little to contain volatility, as escalating geopolitical concerns drove oil to six-month highs and kept markets on edge. Anyone hoping for a breather this week could be disappointed, with the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan all due to make rate calls.
Several heavyweight data releases and an earnings season in full swing should give traders plenty to keep them on their toes. Central-bank guidance, key inflation and growth data, earnings updates and Middle East headlines all have the potential to move markets.
Key Events This Week
The week’s headline events are the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan interest-rate decisions. Australian CPI, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision, the UK Budget, the Bank of Canada decision, US Core PCE, GDP, Flash PMIs and Japanese and German inflation data will also be closely watched.
| Date | Key Event | Market Focus |
|---|---|---|
| Monday | Germany IFO Business Climate Survey | EUR |
| Tuesday | US Durable Goods Orders and CB Consumer Confidence | USD |
| Wednesday | Australian CPI; Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision | AUD NZD |
| Wednesday | UK Budget; Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decisions | GBP CAD USD |
| Thursday | European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision | EUR |
| Thursday | US Core PCE Price Index, GDP and Weekly Unemployment Claims | USD |
| Friday | Tokyo Core CPI and Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision | JPY |
| Friday | Germany Preliminary CPI and GDP | EUR |
| Friday | Canadian GDP | CAD |
Weekly Trading Rhythm
Monday – It is a quiet start to the week on the data front, leaving geopolitical headlines firmly in the driving seat. A New Zealand holiday could thin Asian session liquidity, while Germany’s IFO business climate survey provides the main scheduled focus in Europe. With little else on the calendar, traders will be watching the newswires closely.
Tuesday – Tuesday offers another relatively clear run through the Asian and European sessions before the pace picks up in New York. US Durable Goods Orders and CB Consumer Confidence numbers could inject some life into markets, although developments in the Middle East look set to remain a key driver of sentiment.
Wednesday – The calendar kicks into gear, with Australian CPI putting the Aussie dollar in focus before the Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivers the first of the week’s major rate decisions. Attention then shifts to the UK government’s Budget in the London session, before the Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve take centre stage in New York. The Fed’s decision and guidance could set the tone for the rest of the week.
Thursday – There is little scheduled in Asia, but the pace picks up in Europe as the ECB delivers its latest rate decision. Focus then swings back to US data, with the key Core PCE Price Index due alongside GDP and Weekly Unemployment Claims. Coming straight after the Fed, the releases could quickly test the market’s reading of the central bank’s outlook.
Friday – Japan takes the spotlight early, with Tokyo Core CPI landing just hours before the Bank of Japan’s rate decision. The combination could make for a lively session in the yen. Germany then provides the main European focus, with Preliminary CPI and GDP releases, before Canadian GDP rounds out a packed week shortly after New York opens.