Markets finished last week on a positive note as the US and Iran agreed to extend the current ceasefire by a further 60 days, lifting risk sentiment into Friday’s close. However, fresh strikes in the Gulf over the weekend have again clouded the outlook, with traders returning to their desks facing renewed uncertainty. Geopolitics will remain the dominant driver of sentiment, while a heavy schedule of US economic data — culminating in Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls — keeps the potential for elevated volatility across FX, equities, commodities and bond markets firmly on the table.
Market Review & Outlook
Markets finished last week on a positive note as hopes grew that the United States and Iran were edging closer to a peace agreement after agreeing to extend the current ceasefire by a further 60 days. Risk sentiment improved into Friday’s close, helping equities push higher while safe-haven demand eased.
However, developments over the past 48 hours have again clouded the outlook after reports of fresh strikes in the Gulf. Traders return to their desks this week facing renewed uncertainty and another potentially volatile trading environment.
With geopolitics likely to remain the dominant driver of sentiment, the first week of the month also brings a heavy schedule of US economic data culminating in Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls. Traders should be prepared for elevated volatility across FX, equities, commodities and bond markets.
Key Events This Week
A packed economic calendar this week is headlined by Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls, alongside manufacturing and services PMIs, leading employment indicators, and inflation data from multiple regions.
| Day | Event | Market Focus |
|---|---|---|
| Monday | US ISM Manufacturing PMI | USD |
| Tuesday | Eurozone Flash CPI | EUR |
| Tuesday | JOLTS Job Openings | USD |
| Wednesday | Australian Q1 GDP | AUD |
| Wednesday | ADP Employment Change | USD |
| Wednesday | ISM Services PMI | USD |
| Thursday | Swiss Inflation Data | CHF |
| Thursday | US Weekly Jobless Claims | USD |
| Friday | Non-Farm Payrolls | USD |
| Friday | Canadian Employment Data | CAD |
Trading Rhythm for the Week Ahead
Monday: Markets will spend much of the day reacting to weekend developments in the Middle East. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI provides the first meaningful read on the US economy for the week.
Tuesday: European traders will be watching Eurozone Flash CPI for clues on the ECB’s inflation outlook. US markets then turn to the JOLTS Job Openings report, the first of several employment indicators ahead of Friday’s payrolls.
Wednesday: Australian Q1 GDP takes centre stage in the Asian session. Attention then shifts to the US, where the ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI are both due during the New York session.
Thursday: RBA Governor Michele Bullock appears before a Senate committee in Canberra. In the US, Weekly Jobless Claims offer a final labour market read ahead of payrolls.
Friday: The focus is clear — Non-Farm Payrolls. The US employment report will dominate market sentiment heading into the weekend. Canadian employment data and the Ivey PMI are also due, though both may struggle to compete for attention if payrolls deliver a surprise.
With geopolitical risks still elevated and a packed economic calendar ahead, traders should expect another week where sentiment can shift quickly and volatility remains a key feature across global markets. Be ready for volatility. Trade the week ahead with focus.