US markets endured a volatile session as a softer-than-expected inflation print initially lifted risk appetite before persistent concerns around the broader economic outlook weighed on sentiment. Although expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate hike have fallen to about 40% from 70% a week ago, Treasury yields rose across the curve and the US dollar extended its recent gains. Oil advanced as limited progress in US-Iran peace discussions sustained supply concerns, while gold finished lower after giving up an early post-inflation-data gain. Attention now turns to tomorrow’s crucial US employment report.
📊 Equities
US markets endured a volatile session overnight. A softer-than-expected inflation print initially fuelled risk appetite, but persistent concerns around the broader economic outlook later weighed on sentiment. The Dow and S&P 500 fell 0.86% and 0.25% respectively, while the Nasdaq gained 0.24%.
🛢️ Oil
Oil prices advanced as hopes for progress on US-Iran peace discussions remained limited, supporting supply concerns. Brent crude rose 0.92%, while WTI gained 1.14%.
🥇 Gold
Gold traded higher earlier in the session following the inflation data release but ultimately finished lower as Treasury yields and the US dollar strengthened into the close. The metal fell 0.59% to $4,155.99.
💵 FX & Bonds
The market has reduced expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate hike to approximately 40%, down from 70% a week ago. Despite this shift, Treasury yields moved higher across the curve and the US dollar extended its recent gains.
| Market | Change | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Dow | -0.86% | 50,906 |
| S&P 500 | -0.25% | 7,651 |
| Nasdaq | +0.24% | 26,861 |
| USD | +0.08% | 101.46 |
| US Treasury – 2 Year | +1.1 bps | 4.887% |
| US Treasury – 10 Year | +4.9 bps | 5.285% |
| Oil – Brent | +0.92% | $103.53 |
| Oil – WTI | +1.14% | $90.41 |
| Gold | -0.59% | $4,155.99 |
📌 Today’s Focus
Attention now turns to tomorrow’s crucial US employment report. Today’s economic calendar is relatively light on data releases, although a number of central bank speakers are scheduled throughout the European and US sessions and may generate volatility across rates, currency and equity markets.
🔹 Asian Session – All Day – China – Bank Holiday
🔹 European Session – 4.30 pm – Switzerland – CPI Data
🔹 European Session – 6.00 pm – UK – Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks
🔹 European Session – 11.30 pm – EU – ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks
🔹 US Session – 10.30 pm – US – Weekly Unemployment Claims Data