US equity markets wobbled on Thursday, sliding into the red as traders braced for a potent mix of macro catalysts. Caution dominated sentiment ahead of the all-important US jobs report and potential tariff announcements. The Dow Jones Industrial Average bore the brunt of the selloff, shedding 0.74% to close at 44,130, while the S&P 500 edged down 0.37% to 6,339. The tech-heavy Nasdaq fared better, finishing nearly flat at 21,122, thanks to resilience from a handful of mega-cap names.
On the earnings front, another wave of post-bell reports from the tech sector gave investors more to digest, while earlier comments from Fed officials reinforced the “higher-for-longer” rate narrative — keeping risk appetite in check.
Greenback Stays Hot, Eyes NFP for Next Leg
The US dollar continued its march higher, with the Dollar Index (DXY) advancing 0.24% to 100.06, extending its weekly gain to over 2.5%. Treasury yields moved in tandem, albeit modestly — the 2-year yield rose 1.7 basis points to 3.957%, while the 10-year nudged up 0.4bps to 4.374%.
Dollar bulls now turn their gaze to tonight’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could be a make-or-break moment. Expectations are coalescing around a headline print of +106k, but anything beyond a ±30k deviation could ignite volatility, especially in FX markets.
A strong jobs number would likely defer expectations for a September Fed rate cut, reinforcing the USD’s momentum. Watch for a break above the DXY’s key resistance at 100.54 — a move through could pave the way toward 101.98.
Conversely, a soft print or uptick in unemployment would undercut the dollar and revive dovish rate bets — opening the door for a late-week reversal.
Commodities Mixed: Oil Cools, Gold Gains
Commodity markets were less decisive. Oil prices slipped from recent highs, with Brent crude falling 0.86% to $71.85 and WTI down 1.06% to $69.26, as traders positioned cautiously ahead of a looming tariff deadline.
Gold, meanwhile, edged up 0.45% to $3,289.07, supported by light safe-haven flows as market participants sought protection against headline risks.
Final Trading Day: All Eyes on Jobs and Tariffs
Markets are poised for a potentially turbulent end to the week. The twin catalysts of US labor data and tariff headlines are scheduled for release in the latter half of Friday’s session, meaning we could see range-bound price action in the Asian and early European hours.
EU CPI Flash Estimates, due in early London trade, may add a touch of volatility — with consensus looking for +1.9% headline and +2.3% core — but the real fireworks are expected during New York hours.
Adding to the mix is the ISM Manufacturing PMI, forecast at 49.5, which will offer further clues on the health of US industry.
Takeaway
Markets are on edge as we head into the final session of the week. Whether the dollar extends its rally and equity markets recover will likely hinge on the tone of the jobs report and clarity around trade policy.
Stay tuned — a surprise could make for a dramatic Friday close.